Wacky Odds for Hillary Clinton
Interest in betting on Hillary to win the Democratic nomination has recently been piqued, having spiked to as high as .10/share in early October, before quickly falling back to .05/share.
Remember, folks, Hillary Clinton is not currently in the running for the nomination.
Some have posited that the bet size limitations which platforms such as PredictIt impose, coupled with exorbitant fees, have distorted the odds.
Curiously enough, several days later, Hillary’s odds spiked again, this time to as high as .11/share. This would place her in the top three or four hopefuls for the nomination; again, without an official announcement or indication she would be running.
What’s causing this phenomenon? is HRC preparing another run?
Probably not. The initial spike seemed to correlate with an October 1st appearance on The View, where speculators may have been trying to front-run an announcement. The second spike seemed to correlate with an October 8th response to a DJT tweet which goaded here to run again:
@realDonaldTrump Don't tempt me. Do your job.
2020 Election Betting Roundup
Following last week’s runup in the Donald Trump first-term impeachment market, odds have plateaued in the low .70s range. This has held despite presidential-hopeful Joe Biden now joining in on the impeachment chorus, as well as a second intelligence official whistleblower coming forward in the alleged pressuring of Ukrainian President Zelensky by Trump into investigating Joe’s son, Hunter’s Ukrainian energy dealings.
Biden, in other news, has maintained a sizeable deficit, currently .27/share, to leader Elizabeth Warren in the 2020 Democratic nomination markets. In the same market, Bernie Sanders’ odds have tanked in the wake of his heart attack/hospitalization (get well Bern!).
On the 2020 Presidential election market front, DJT’s lead over Warren has recently ebbed and flowed, currently sitting at a .06 spread of .40/share vs .34/share.
As a reminder, come Q1 2020, Augur will be the no-brainer platform for political betting with unbeatable odds, the lowest fees, and the tightest spreads. Get started betting!
Lots of News from Devcon!
This week at Devcon in Osaka, Japan, the team announced the planned rollout of Augur v2, and are one step closer to providing universal access to tools that increase and protect wealth through finance and betting.
read below about the past, present, and future of Augur’s mission of creating the world’s most accessible, no-limit betting platform is coming to fruition:
Augur v2 Devcon Presentation
Below you can watch a short presentation outlining the Q1 2020 release of Augur v1.5 w/ 0x Trading, Augur v2.0 w/ MakerDAO’s Dai, and the forthcoming scaling solution for high throughput and low latency:
Here is the full deck from the presentation:
All-Time Finalized Markets: 2,438
Pre-Finalization Open Interest: $182,194.74 (950 ETH)
CASH Contract: $550,149.22 USD (2,956 ETH)
ETH Price: $186.07
Around the Ecosystem
- BREAKING: Launch Date of Multi-Collateral Dai, the Dai Savings Rate, and More Announced at Devcon 5
- May The Odds Be Ever in Your Favor
- Hillary Rockets Into 3rd Place On PredictIt As Rumors Swirl Over 2020 Run
- This prediction market has Hillary Clinton in third place to win the Democratic primary
- 1confirmation Newsletter - Issue #68
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This article was first published on: Stories by Augur on Medium